Lille v Lens (France Ligue 1)
It’s fourth versus sixth in France and with just a single point separating these two sides, a win for either side would do wonders towards pushing for a European spot. Even the Champions League is hardly out of their each, as its only a four point gap between second placed Brest and Lens.
Lille have a great home record, having lost just once back in Setpember, whilst they also have best defence too, having conceded just six goals in their twelve home games. They earned back to back 1-1 draws in their last two games before the break, including a decent result in the Europa Conference League.
Away from home, only PSG have conceded fewer goals than Lens in Ligue 1, but they’ve been struggling to find the net, having scored only 14 goals in 13 games on the road. They are on a 4 match unbeaten run away from home, and 5 of their last 6 away games have seen under 3 goals.
All in all, we anticipate a tight game between two defensive sides who will be worried to lose. Anything above a price of 1.88 on the under 2.5 goals should be taken.
⚽︎ Game Tip: Under 2.5 Goals
Genoa v Frosinone (Italy Serie A)
Twelfth placed Genoa don’t appear to have much left to play for this season as they sit ten points clear of the drop zone with nine games left to go, though they will want to make sure of that by picking up a few more wins before the end of the season. They managed to gain an admirable point in their last league game before the international break with a goalless draw at Juventus, but all in all, they’ve had a pretty inconsistent season.
Frosinone slipped into the bottom three with a defeat at home to Lazio in their last outing, and it marked their sixth defeat in seven league games. Despite a great start to the season, their current record is a pretty terrible – in their last 16 league games, they have won once and drawn just three times. Away from home, they are truly rotten, with no wins and three draws in fourteen games; the worst in the league.
Motivation becomes a huge factor at this stage of the season, and it’s clear Frosinone, who are one point away from safety, will have more. But we’ll rely on Genoa’s professionalism here to come through.
⚽︎ Game Tip: Genoa -0.5
Werder Bremen vs Wolfsburg (Germany Bundesliga)
Two sides who have suffered a dip in form of late face off; the international break couldn’t have come at a better time for both teams as they look to bounce back.
Bremen have suffered three straight league defeats, two of them on the road, and their loss at home came against Dortmund. Just prior to that, they had managed to secure four wins in five league games and looked on course to push for a European spot, but it could be tough now. In all, Bremen have relied on their home form to garner points, but they will have to do so with three players suspended, all in midfield, though Romano Schmid will return from his own suspension.
Wolfsburg are winless since before Christmas, and like their opponents, they are on a three match losing streak. They’ve picked up enough draws in recent months to move six points clear of the drop zone, but they’re still in for a bumpy end-of-season run in. Wolfsburg have only won two of their thirteen away games this season and lost eight, and its tough to see how they can be favourites this weekend. And to make matters worse, they appear to be without top scorer Jonas Wind through injury.
If you’re able to get Bremen on the draw-no-bet handicap at a price above 1.95, you’ve probably got yourself a great bet here, they should be underdogs at home to this side.
⚽︎ Game Tip: Werder Bremen 0
Sheffield Utd v Fulham (England Premier League)
The gap between bottom side Sheffield United and safety has opened up to eight points with ten games to go, and it would appear to take a small miracle for this side to escape the drop this season. They ended a three match losing streak by drawing against AFC Bournemouth in their last league game. Despite leading 2-0 in the second half, their leaky defence stopped them from recording a much needed win.
In their last three home games Sheffield United have conceded sixteen goals, and with a goal difference of -50, they could go down as the worst defensive side ever in the Premier League. At least they have shown some steel up front in their last game by scoring twice.
Fulham have been in terrific form of late and have won four of their last six league games, including impressive wins against Manchester United, Tottenham and Brighton. It feels like once they have shaken off the threat of relegation, and given Rodrigo Muniz an extended run out, they have become a wonderfully attacking side. Their record on the road is a little shaky though, and they have won just two of their fourteen games on the road, so whilst a bet on Fulham is tempting, a game full of goals is more likely to come in here.
⚽︎ Game Tip: Over 2.75 Goals
Valencia v Mallorca (Spain Primera Liga)
If they win their game in hand, Valencia have the opportunity to climb to within three points of a European spot that Real Sociedad currently occupy, and with just ten games left to go, we’re entering crunch time. Their home record has been impressive, losing only twice all season and conceding only eight goals in front of their home fans. It was only a few weeks ago that they drew 2-2 at home to Real Madrid in a bad tempered game where they were 2-0 up. They will be without two defenders this week though, as Jose Gaya and Mouctar Diakhaby are missing.
Eight points clear of the drop zone, most believe that Mallorca are safe from relegation this year – they are a side who have won two of their last three games, and have made it to the final of the Copa Del Rey where they will take on Athletic Bilbao next week. They will be sure to have one eye on that game and may rest some key players here to ensure a fully fit side for the final. Defender Martin Valjent is certainly out this weekend.
Whilst both sides are fairly low scoring teams, the goal line looks really low here, and to think you can win half your bet with just 2 goals in a league clash looks really tempting.
⚽︎ Game Tip: Over 1.75 Goals