Every week, our resident tipster will be picking his ultimate football betting tips for the weekend ahead. With few English Premier League matches on offer, he’s recommending one selection from each of the other three major leagues for you to follow!
Empoli v Bologna (Italy Serie A)
A two match losing streak for Empoli sees them teeter on the edge of the relegation zone where they currently sit one place and one point above Frosinone in the drop zone. In their third straight season in the top flight in Italy, its actually the first time that they’re really embroiled in the relegation dog fight, and whilst it appears that Salernitana will likely face the drop, only four points separate 13th placed Udinese and 19th place Sassuolo, and its really tight at the foot of the table. Empoli in fact looked down an out in mid January, but a run of six games without defeat in the league, include three victories, saw them climb back out, but recent defeats at home to Cagliari and away to AC Milan will have dented their confidence. Furthermore, they will be without the influential midfielder Jacopo Fazzini through suspension, and Ardian Ismajli (DF), Razvan Marin (MF) and Alberto Grassi (MF) will also likely be missing through injury.
Bologna on the other hand have been having a truly terrific season, and the side that almost always finishes in midtable (9th, 13th, 12th, 12th 10th 15th, 15th, 14th in the 9 seasons since they were last promoted in 2015) are currently in fourth place occupying that last Champions League spot that they will be desperate to hold on to. Roma are hot on their tails, three points behind them, and with only ten games left to go, they’re in with a great chance of reaching Europe’s most prestigious club tournament. Prior to last weekend, Bologna were on a six match winning streak in the league, scoring sixteen goals in the process, but the visit of Inter Milan, who currently lead the league by sixteen points, was too much of an ask as they lost 0-1 in battling circumstances. Their top scorer, Joshua Zirkzee (FW) is out injured, but they still have firepower in the form of Riccardo Orsolini, who has nine goals this season and was the club’s top scorer last year with eleven.
The price on Bologna looks a little big in this game; granted they lost their last game, but they fared well against tough opposition. Anything above a price of around 2.05 for the win should be a good bet for the away side here.
⚽️ Game Tip: Bologna -0.5
Heidenheim v Borussia Monchengladbach (Germany Bundesliga 1)
In their first ever season in the top flight, Heidenheim, a town home to only 50,000 people, and a side who were in the fourth tier of German football only fifteen years ago, are looking solid as they sit in eleventh place, ten points clear of the relegation zone with nine games left to play. Their impressive unbeaten run between early December and mid February has certainly helping, during which they won four and drew four league matches, including a famous draw against Dortmund, but they may have put their foot off the gas in recent weeks, and host Monchengladbach on the back of two straight defeats. Four of their last five games have featured at least three goals in them, and that could increase this weekend with influential centre back Benedikt Gimber missing through suspension.
Gladbach sit a point and place below their opponents and are currently on a three game unbeaten streak in the league, during which they’ve scored nine and conceded six. They’ll be pretty disappointed though following their midweek Germany Cup clash against lower league side Saarbrucken when they were leading 1-0 early on, but ultimately conceded at the death to see their hopes to making the semi finals dashed. Gladbach certainly love scoring; only the top five teams in the division have amassed more goals, but at the back, they have been rather shambolic, and only two teams in the division have conceded more goals. Maximilian Wober in defence will also be missing this weekend, so we can expect that backline to be even shakier at Heidenheim.
We should certainly expect goals in this match up where Heidenheim, who should be fairly confident that they wont be dragged into a relegation fight, take on a side struggling in defence. If the betting odds on the over 2.75 is anything above 1.82 before kick off, it’s probably worth a bet.
⚽️ Game Tip: Over 2.75 GoalsRayo Vallecano v Real Betis (Spain La Liga)
Rayo are teetering on the edge of the relegation zone where they currently sit just four points above eighteenth placed Cadiz. It’s well documented how bad a season Almeria are currently having at the foot of the table having not won a single game all season, but Rayo in fact have the second worst home record in the division after Almeria, and they’ve only garnered two more points in total than them. With just one win at home in thirteen, which came all the way back in September, they’ve also got the second worst home goals tally this season and have largely been relying on their away form to gain points all season. In all competitions, they have now gone ten games without winning, and have only drawn three of those, and to make matters worse for them, midfielder Alvaro Garcia also look set to miss out this weekend’s game through injury.
Real Betis slipped into seventh place in La Liga with a 2-3 defeat to Villarreal last week in a match where they were leading twice. A red card to striker Luis Avila didn’t help their cause as it maintained a bit of a dampener that they’ve experiencing in recent weeks having been dumped out of the Europa Conference League against Dinamo Zagreb a few weeks ago. Nonetheless, they still have a great chance of qualifying for Europe again as they sit just a point behind Real Sociedad. Away from home, Betis have lost only four times in thirteen games, though they have picked up quite a few days and struggle somewhat to find the net away from home. Ex Arsenal and Barcelona defender Hector Bellerin is a doubt for this game through injury.
It’s tough to understand how Rayo are fairly big favourites in this clash considering their home form and the fact they are taking on a side chasing European aspirations. It should be a little closer to a 50/50 shot on the draw no bet, so anything above 2.20 on the 0 handicap, or 1.77 on the +0.25 handicap should be a value bet here.
⚽️ Game Tip: Real Betis +0.25